Analysis | NFL best bets for Week 5: A Jared Goff-Bailey Zappe shootout? Why not?
Lean: Pittsburgh Steelers +14
This isn’t a best bet given the uncertainty under center for the Steelers, but it has been gnawing at my brain since the line opened.
It’s hard to overstate how mediocre Mitchell Trubisky was as Pittsburgh’s starting quarterback. He ranks 24th of 32 quarterbacks in Total QBR this season and has seen his teams score exactly as many points per game as you would expect — no more, no less — since he was drafted in 2017. That puts him 32nd among 45 qualified passers during that span. On Sunday against the New York Jets, he was pulled in the second half in favor of rookie Kenny Pickett, who promptly completed 10 of 13 passes for 120 yards, although he also threw three interceptions.
That doesn’t sound great, but the Steelers scored almost five more points than expected with Pickett under center, compared with nine points fewer than expected with Trubisky. In other words, even with the three turnovers, Pickett turned the offense around. That came after Pickett had no reps with the first-team offense and was hastily thrown into the game, so I would expect improvement going forward.
Based on my power ratings, I have this game as Bills -11½. If Pickett starts, as Coach Mike Tomlin said he would, I think Steelers +14 is worth a look.
The plays above represent our best bets of the week because our analysis shows their value is the most lucrative compared with what we expect to happen on the field. Below, you will find against-the-spread picks for all of the games on this week’s schedule. However, trying to pick every game is something of a fool’s errand. The house wins so often partly because bettors try to make too many plays when the odds aren’t in their favor. Keep that in mind when evaluating the remaining games from the Week 5 slate.
